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Understanding Expected Value in Poker

November 29, 2008

There is a lot to learn about the game of poker. There are many different concepts to think about that take years to start to figure out. One of these concepts is expected value. Expected value in poker is a fairly simple and straightforward concept for the most part. All you have to do is just think about what the words are saying. If you think a little bit harder about it, there can be some confusion, so pay close attention.

What is Expected Value in Poker ?

Expected value is the value you expect to get out of a hand. The term started out as a basic probability math term, and was brought into the poker world. It is used to figure out the average outcome of any given situation over the long term. Since poker should be played as a long-term game, it works out well. Your goal as a poker player should be to win over the long run.

With that said, you are probably wondering how you would figure out the expected value. This is where it can get a bit tricky. There is actually some real math involved here so prepare yourself.

The idea here is to try to figure out what the best move would be in any given scenario. You want to try to figure out if you should check, bet, raise or fold based on mathematical probabilities. This is just one more concept where math is used in poker. So we will look at an example here.

Example:

A common example for expected value is with small to medium pocket pairs. While playing Texas Holdem, you will often find yourself in this position. There are really three different things you could do assuming that your opponents are all limping in.

A) You could simply call and limp in.
B) You could raise.
C) You could fold.

Since nobody is raising and you do not have much to lose here, we will automatically rule out C. There is obviously no value in folding in this position. There is much more to gain than to lose here.

Note: We are going to assume that you must hit a set in this situation in order to win the hand.

Raising would not be the best move here because you want to get the best possible pot odds with a hand like this. You will only hit a set on the flop 1 out of every 7 times on average. If you add in implied odds, you can say that you want at least 4:1 pot odds going into the flop, if not better. If you raise, you are likely to get most people to fold leaving you heads up or maybe three handed, which will give you 3:1 pots odds at best. The more players and the better pot odds before the flop with smaller pairs, the better your expected value would be.

So the best move here would be to just simply call.

There are some fairly specific calculations that could be made for every single situation. This is just the simple overview of expected value in poker, which should help you understand the concept

Written by Rob · Filed Under Bad Beat Strategy 

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